The Central Bank Bill Interest Rate Has More Upward Pressure After The Interest Rate Increase

　　 money market It gives the signal of policy expectation. Since the beginning of last week, the liquidity tension in the money market has intensified Repurchase rate Continue to soar across the board. On December 23, the benchmark interest rate of the money market, the weighted average interest rate of the seven day pledge repo, closed at 5.7125%, up 152.57BP from the previous trading day, with the largest increase since June 6, 2008. At the same time, this indicator also reached a new high on October 26, 2007.

On the same day, Bank of Shanghai The interbank offered rate (shibor), the weighted average interest rate of overnight, 7-day and 14 day pledge style repo were 3.2550%, 5.6617% and 5.1533% respectively, 70.17, 150.34 and 59.58 basis points higher than the previous trading day. From the feedback of repo market information, the central bank may introduce a move to raise the deposit reserve ratio or interest rate in the near future.

Analysts believe that the market will not overreact after the boots of this interest rate increase fall, because the central bank's move is mainly to adjust inflation expectations. In November, China's CPI rose 5.1% year on year, hitting a 28 month high. Inflation has become the focus of attention of all sectors of society.

The interest rate hike will still have a direct impact on the money market. The first is the regular open market central bank bill issuance twice a week by the central bank. Since the beginning of November, the central bank bills have been issued in low volume in a continuous history, and the interest margin between the primary and secondary markets has continued to expand. The interest rate of central bank bill issuance has been flat since late October when it rose slowly. The one-year central bank bill was unchanged at 2.3437% for the sixth consecutive week. After the interest rate hike, the central bank bill interest rate has more upward pressure. However, as the interest margin is still too large, the circulation will not be enlarged too much.

Analysts believe that compared with October 20, the first interest rate increase by the central bank caused a storm like rise in yields in the bond market, and the pressure of this interest rate increase on the bond market will be relatively small. Once the interest rate is raised, the expectation of further interest rate increases will be less once. In the last interest rate increase, the rate of return increase of interest rate products in each term actually prepaid two or three interest rate increases in the future. At present, the main factor affecting the yield of short-term debt is the change of capital. At the same time, the interest rate increase will restrain the recent downward step at the long end of the yield curve.

The People's Bank of China announced on December 25 that it would raise the benchmark interest rate of RMB deposits and loans of financial institutions from December 26, 2010. The benchmark one-year deposit and loan interest rates of financial institutions were raised by 0.25 percentage points respectively, and the benchmark deposit and loan interest rates of other grades were adjusted accordingly. This is the second interest rate increase by the People's Bank of China since 2010. The last interest rate increase was on October 20.