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The Growth Of Chinese Textile Products Continues To Shine.

2011/8/1 10:14:00 58

Textile And Garment Export Unit Price Economies

First, the recent industry fundamental view: consumption presents seasonal fluctuations, and export situation is slightly embarrassed.

1, retail: seasonal consumption fluctuated in the two quarter, but the distribution channels were different.

In the two quarter, industry consumption showed obvious seasonal fluctuations, clothing, shoes and hats,

knitting

Product sales data in the 4 and May after the sharp decline, June stabilized, the total retail sales reached 57 billion 500 million yuan, an increase of 24.6% over the previous year, compared with 21.8% in May has risen, validates our early season retail sales, although not colorful, but can be stabilized.

Among them, from the retail situation of distribution channels, sales growth of franchised stores and other channels is better than that of department stores, so as to ensure that the overall retail sales grow steadily and rebound.

According to the statistics of the China National Business Information Center, in June, the growth rate of retail sales of all the major large retail enterprises in various classified markets showed a downward trend compared with the same period last year. The retail sales growth rate of clothing and cosmetics products slowed down by 10.59 and 3.40 percentage points respectively, while gold and silver jewelry products still maintained 42.37% highs, but also 2.94 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year.

We believe that this is mainly due to high inflation this year, and the government has stepped up price control.

Department store

The market discount rate is much more suppressed than in previous years.

On the whole, the retail situation of the industry shows a significant seasonality. Sales in 5, 6 and July are low for 1 months. With the coming of the peak season of sales in September and 8, the increase in prices from the second half to next year will be conducive to the recovery of sales. The retail situation of the industry is expected to continue to maintain a relatively rapid growth. The growth rate of total retail sales in the whole year is expected to remain at around 20%.

2, export: the increase in prices has pushed up trade exports to maintain a relatively fast growth, but there is a clear divergence between price and price.

In the first half of this year, China's textile and clothing exports maintained a relatively good growth trend, and in June, it reached a record high for the first time in 22 billion 900 million months, a 12.58% increase over May.

But we do not think this is a comprehensive reflection of the real situation of the current industry exports.

From the order situation, the current data mainly reflect the orders from the end of last year to the first quarter of this year. Therefore, the high growth of the existing data can not fully represent the status of the industry's exports.

From the perspective of volume and price, this year's export situation has changed from increasing volume to rising price. According to the first textile statistics, the export price of yarn, fabric and clothing in China has increased by 26.2%, 31.1% and 16% respectively in the first quarter, and the price increase is far higher than that in 2010.

but

commodity price

The rise directly impacts consumer demand, resulting in a sharp narrowing of the industry's export volume by more than 10 percentage points, resulting in a serious divergence in volume and price.

At present, both sides of the import and export sides are in a wait-and-see attitude in the face of the fall in cotton prices. Among them, the exporters have generally delayed the purchase of raw material stocks to reduce the cost of raw material procurement, and only have strategic allocation. As a result, business pactions have been cautious and the proportion of short and single stocks has continued to rise.

The import level of acceptance of the continuous price increase has also approached the critical value, the phenomenon of postponing the order is obvious.

Generally speaking, there is a possibility of a callback in the export unit price, and the recovery trend of the major international economies is uncertain, and export demand is not improving. Therefore, the growth rate of trade exports in the second half of this year will gradually slow down.