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Cotton Long Lines Are Hard To Say.

2011/12/1 8:50:00 19

Since Zheng cotton to the vicinity of 20000,

market

It is understandable to see more and more voices. If it is too short, it is understandable, but there is a view that the layout of the medium and long lines is more than single.

Macroscopically, technically and irrespective, there are many experts in this respect, only on fundamentals and supply and demand.

The new cotton year starts in September this year. You can get data from some authoritative organizations.

cotton

About 900 thousand tons of cotton this year, and the actual consumption of last year, the United States Department of agriculture statistics about 10 million tons in China, ending inventory of about 200 thousand tons.

So from the end inventory comparison, we found China's last year's inventory.

Consumption

It is 9 million 300 thousand tons (the actual demand is far less than 9 million tons).

In this year's US Department of agriculture report, China's demand is still 10 million tons. Do you believe this?

China has made a more optimistic forecast of the textile production rate this year: 80%, it is estimated that China's cotton demand will reach 900*0.8=720 million tons this year.

Can anyone say that the textile industry will not improve? Why are you so pessimistic? How much is the price of the national reserve price of 19800? How much is the cotton price outside the industry? The industry knows that our raw material cost advantage is lost. The textile industry is experiencing not only the global economic chill but also the impact of low cost products such as Southeast Asia and India, and will continue to impact.

Well, if the domestic cotton demand is 720*2=1440 million tons in the next two years.

If 7 million tons of cotton output is calculated this year, plus 900 thousand tons of storage, the supply and demand of Chinese cotton will basically balance in the past two years.

Yes, we have to say Guo Chu.

If we accept 3 million tons, will the market be unbalanced? No, we will import about 2500000 tons of cotton last year and import volume in the next two years. I think the sum of the two will not be lower than 3 million tons.

From the supply and demand table alone, we can hardly say that we have been optimistic in the past two years. If the state reserves are over, if the quantity is not large, the market will hardly be able to say that raw materials are hard to find.