US Cotton Futures Continue To Rise, Maintaining Short-Term Strength And Weakness.

< p > recently, the US cotton futures have been rising and climbing to nearly 9 months.

US cotton quotes 86.87 cents / pound, up 0.14%.

And the trend of Zheng cotton appeared rather weak, and yesterday quoted 20155 yuan / ton, down 0.10%.

Experts said that the price difference between the domestic and foreign a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > cotton < /a > is at a historical high level, and the future trend will be mainly based on the repair price difference, or in the short term or maintain the "strong inside and outside weak" situation.

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< p > < strong > Mei cotton hit the highest in September < /strong > < /p >.

< p > U.S. cotton main contract in May hit a 9 month high price of 88.78 cents last Friday.

For the US cotton rising for a long time, experts believe that, first of all, it is boosted by the increase in US cotton exports and the drop in inventory.

Most of the US cotton has been exported this year, and spot resources are insufficient.

Observing the global a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_f.asp" > cotton inventory < /a >, it can be found that the cotton stocks are not as loose as expected in China except in other parts of China.

The US Department of agriculture's March report predicts that the year-end inventory of cotton in the global 2012/2013 will be slightly lower.

It is estimated that the global cotton year-end inventory will be 81 million 700 thousand tons, slightly lower than last month's forecast.

Therefore, once the downstream demand arises, the international cotton trade will be prone to a tight pattern.

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< p > secondly, the market is expected to have better cotton production in the new year.

The industry expects us cotton planting area to decrease by 19% next year and the global planting area is also expected to decrease.

Due to the decrease of planting area, the market expects that the output of cotton will not meet the demand next year.

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< p > Third, the promotion of capital is also one of the factors to stimulate the rise of US cotton.

Over the past 2 months, the number of long positions in commodity funds has been increasing, and the share of long positions in total positions has been increasing.

In addition, the recent market rumors that in the future, cotton can be delivered directly, which has also pushed up the price of US cotton.

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< p > < strong > ZHENG cotton's impact on storage is difficult to rise. < /strong > < /p >

< p > and the recent trend of Zheng cotton is obviously inferior to that of American cotton, which is mainly influenced by the throwing and storing of domestic cotton.

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< p > "the trend of Zheng cotton is not as good as that of cotton, because the NDRC said in its January report that it will continue to throw 4 million 500 thousand tons of cotton to the end of July, and the dumping price will be 19000 yuan / ton, so the downstream buyers will not catch up with buying cotton, and Zheng cotton will not be able to rise sharply."

East Asia Futures analyst Xu Zhou said.

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< p > in addition to the impact of dumping, Shenyang Wanguo futures analyst Zhang Junling believes that Zheng cotton is also affected by oversupply, and the price is much higher than that of the US cotton, so the trend is relatively independent.

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< p > from the perspective of future trend, experts believe that the possibility of the rise of Zheng cotton and American cotton will be lower.

At present, the domestic and foreign < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_x.asp" > cotton price difference < /a > is still around 3500 yuan / ton, which has dropped slightly compared with the previous 4000-5000 yuan, but is still at a historical high.

In the future, the price trend of domestic and foreign cotton will still be mainly based on the repair price difference. Therefore, it is likely that there will be a "strong inside and outside weak" situation instead of "flying together".

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< p > Shanghai mid-term analyst sees thunder, indicating that the domestic cotton is driven by the US cotton or will be strong, but the uplink will not be as good as that of the US cotton.

In fact, judging from the price difference, at present, foreign cotton is still 4000 yuan lower than domestic cotton, and the United States cotton has increased a little, and domestic cotton is less or no rise, which is more reasonable.

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