Yu Bin Analyzes Current Economic Situation And Policy

Yu Bin, Minister of the Ministry of macroeconomic development of the State Council Development Research Center, has been engaged in the research of macroeconomic analysis, < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_c.asp" > regional economy < /a > development and enterprise development strategy for a long time, and is an expert who enjoys special government subsidy and has made outstanding contributions to P. He has participated in the drafting of the relevant documents of the central economic work conference and the "two sessions" government work report for many times, and has published several books and over 300 articles. < /p >
< p > he made a major analysis of the current macroeconomic situation and the world economy in China. He pointed out that China's economy is in the critical stage of transformation and seeking new balance at the stage of growth, and made an analysis and prediction of the future economic situation. In particular, the policy of < A href= "http:// www.sjfzxm.com/news/" > macroeconomy < /a > has been deeply analyzed. The following is a summary of the speech: < /p >
According to the global economic situation, the external market demand in the second half of the year is generally improving. This is our basic judgement on the trend of the global economy in the second half of the year. The US economy will continue to recover moderately, and the euro zone economy will basically stabilize, and the recovery of Japan's economy is expected to last for some time. P Emerging economies are relatively stable in relative low speed. Last year, whether Russia or India or Brazil, and of course, China, the growth of the whole emerging economy has declined sharply. As China's export competitiveness has shown signs of decline, coupled with the increase in trade frictions with Europe and the United States and the devaluation of the Japanese yen, we expect export growth to be basically the same as last year. < /p >
< p > from the domestic economic situation, the growth of domestic investment and consumption is obviously weak, the growth rate of urban and rural residents' income has obviously declined, the structural industrial problems are outstanding, and the steady state of consumer enterprises is facing certain tests. If the income growth of urban and rural residents still shows a downward trend, it is difficult for us to get the result of consumption improvement. We also did a lot of enterprise questionnaire survey. < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com > > Enterprise < /a > the confidence of the family is obviously insufficient. For the 3 quarter, the business condition of the enterprise is expected to be more prudent, and the future employment or investment plan is obviously reduced. On the whole, we think the downward pressure on the economy is more and more obvious, and we can not rule out the possibility of a sharp decline in the short term due to the intensification of contradictions. < /p >
< p > China's economy is still in the process of transformation of growth stage. From the driving force of growth, the inertia of old growth can not be underestimated, and the new growth momentum and mode have not yet formed, which is in the process of transformation. When we have bid farewell to the stage of rapid growth and the new medium speed growth stage is coming, the whole market is expected to be unstable and the downward pressure will increase. The original and new contradictions will be superimposed, and the instability and uncertainty of economic operation will surpass that of the past. < /p >
< p > under such circumstances, what adjustments should be made in macroeconomic policy? We believe that macroeconomic regulation and control must stick to the bottom line and promote steady progress. Keeping the bottom line is to keep the bottom line of the systemic economic and financial crisis that does not erupt. To promote stability is to promote reform with the basic stability of the macro-economy, promote structural adjustment, promote transformation and upgrading, and promote the transformation of development mode. < /p >
< p > keeping the bottom line is mainly directed against two extreme situations, one is short-term economic decline, the other second is the intensification of financial and financial risks. What are the areas in which specific financial and financial risks will intensify? We believe that the following four problems need to be resolved. These are the four major risks facing the Chinese economy. The first is the debt of the local government financing platform, the second is the real estate bubble, the third is the serious overcapacity, and the fourth is the shadow banking. We believe that China's financial and financial risks are intensifying, and the risks generally come from these four areas. < /p >
< p > we only have to actively guard against and defuse these four risks before we can prevent the extreme situation of financial and financial risks from intensifying. It is possible to hold the bottom line so as to promote steadily. The second half year will be held in the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee as an opportunity to effectively push forward the reform of key areas, open up a new stage of healthy and sustainable development of economy, and create an upgraded version of < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com" > China's economy < /a >. < /p >