Economic Forecast: Andouble'S Revival Plan Is Afraid Of Failure.

A survey conducted by foreign media on Monday (December 29th) released in December 15th showed that large enterprises in Japan planned to return the extra cash to shareholders in 2015 instead of responding to the appeal of Shinzo Abe for raising wages in December 29th. Although the downward trend of real wages in the 17 consecutive months is crucial to the success of "Andouble economics", 47 of the 47 companies surveyed plan to increase their salary by barely 1/10 in 2015.

According to the survey, more than 70% of enterprises indicated that they should use cash reserves to pay dividends and buy back shares, and most of them also put investment in front of salary increase. Although Abe's monetary and fiscal stimulus policies helped companies gain profits and cash growth, they were unwilling to raise wages, partly because they were uncertain whether they could raise the cost of raising wages to consumers through higher prices.

According to data from the BOJ, non-financial companies registered 233 trillion yen in cash and deposits at the end of 9, the highest record level, which is 12% higher than a year ago. But this latest survey shows that big blue chip companies do not want to raise salaries or even want to keep pace with weak inflation. The smaller companies that employ most Japanese workers usually lag behind large ones in terms of pay rise.

Kuroda Higashihiko, President of the Bank of Japan (Haruhiko Kuroda), said on Thursday (December 25th) that Japan was making steady progress in breaking the deflation mentality and plans to pay close attention to the spring wage negotiations. He also said he hoped the central bank's firm determination to achieve price targets could affect the spring wage negotiations and corporate pricing activities.

Salary growth is also Japan The key to the success of the central bank's QQE policy. The move is designed to drive companies to increase profits and raise workers. salary To promote consumption and stimulate sustainable economic growth.

Another indicator shows that the price of inflation protected bonds in Japan has plummeted in recent weeks, showing that inflation expectations are the lowest since Kuroda took office in March 20th last year. Government bonds The trend shows that investors are actually expecting a brief deflation period after 2017 (the second increase in consumption tax).

Taro Aso (Taro Aso), the Japanese finance minister, on Wednesday (December 24th) also urged companies to raise wages to help support private consumption, emphasizing that such cooperation in the private sector was the key to the success of the prime minister Abe Shinzo's stimulus policy. Asou pointed out that next year, the most important thing for Japanese enterprises is to raise wages; if the enterprises do not show willingness to cooperate and raise salaries, the third arrows of Andouble economics will not succeed.

Akira Amari, Japan's minister of Finance and economics, said last Friday that if the government, trade unions and enterprises can fulfill their respective responsibilities in terms of salary increase and employment, Japan will be able to get rid of deflation in the near future.