M2 Growth Is Lower Than Expected In The First Quarter, Expected To Increase.

Sheng Songcheng, director of the central bank statistics department, said that there were three main reasons for the M2 growth rate decline. First, foreign exchange holdings were significantly reduced. Two, the decrease in the use of interbank funds resulted in a decrease in currency derivatives. Three, the decrease in off balance sheet financing led to a decrease in currency derivatives.

"The sharp fall in new foreign exchange holdings has led to a change in the mode of central bank's basic currency delivery, coupled with prudent monetary policy, resulting in a relatively small increase in the base money compared with the previous year (M0 growth in the first quarter of 6.2%), and there is room for reducing the reserve requirement ratio." Lian Ping, chief economist at Bank of communications, said.

CICC report pointed out that the quarter quarter growth rate of M2 in the first quarter was 9.5%, which was significantly slower than the 10.7% in the fourth quarter of last year, indicating that monetary policy easing has not yet been brought. Monetary conditions Improvement in quantity and price. monetary policy Relaxation efforts need to be strengthened.

Xie Yaxuan, an analyst with China Merchants Securities, further pointed out that the upward movement of inflation will reduce the operating space of monetary policy, and it is expected that there will be another 2-3 yen in the year. It is estimated that in the two quarter, the central bank will focus more on revitalize the use of stock tools and guide the interest rate decline in the open market and the use of innovative tools to enhance the transmission efficiency of monetary policy and reduce the financing interest rate of the real economy.

Societe Generale Securities Research Report that a large number of off balance sheet financing in the first quarter to the table financing This trend will continue in the future. Under such circumstances, banks are faced with further risk weights, loan to deposit ratios and other constraints, which restrict the ability of banks to derive credit. To ensure that the currency is "moderately tight", monetary multiplier must be enhanced through monetary policy. In the short term, it is worth looking forward to reducing the cost of money by opening up the money multiplier and reducing the cost of capital through open market operations.

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According to the first quarter data, the new foreign exchange accounted for a negative 252 billion 100 million in the first quarter, of which 230 billion 700 million was negative in March. The total amount of social financing in the first quarter was 894 billion 900 million less than that in the same period last year. In March, it was 837 billion 800 million less than that in the same period last year. Considering that the central bank adjusted the statistics of loans in February and deducted the scale of loans from financial enterprises, the scale of social financing in March dropped by nearly 1 trillion in the same period. The two major changes in the data are mainly reflected in March, so what happened in March?

In fact, overall financing demand declined significantly in March. In March, new RMB loans increased by 1 trillion and 180 billion (New caliber), up 66 billion 100 million from the same period last year. However, according to CICC, according to the old caliber, the new RMB credit in March was only 980 billion, which was unchanged from 1 trillion and 20 billion in February, and nearly 500 billion lower than 1 trillion and 470 billion in January.

According to the rhythm of the central bank agreeable loan management, the credit supply should have increased in the first quarter. Under this background, the credit scale of March was relatively slow. CICC reports that the credit scale in March was significantly lower than our expected 2 trillion and 1 trillion and 500 billion of market expectations.

On off balance sheet financing, in the first quarter, the total financing of the real economy in terms of entrusted loans, trust loans and non discounted bank acceptances was 385 billion 900 million, 1 trillion and 140 billion less than that of the same period last year. In March, the three financing mentioned above was 16 billion, a decrease of 557 billion 600 million over the same period last year, of which the entrusted loans were 111 billion 100 million, down 130 billion 200 million compared with the same period last year; the trust loans were 7 billion 700 million, down 114 billion 800 million compared to the same period last year; the bank discount bills were not 87 billion 400 million, which was reduced by 312 billion 600 million compared to the same period last year. In addition, corporate bond financing in March was 686 billion billion, an increase of 177 billion 800 million over the same period last year.

CICC believes that the year-on-year increase in off balance sheet financing and corporate bond financing in March reflects the effect of "No. 43" on the financing of local government financing platforms.

In the case of new foreign exchange, the foreign exchange surplus remained stable in the first two months in the first two months of the first quarter, but in March it was 230 billion 700 million negative growth. The main reason is that the trade surplus declined rapidly in March compared with 1-2 months.