Polyester Enterprises Loss, Downstream Consumption Weakened

After the middle of November, the resumption of yam's equipment will gradually alleviate the shortage of supply.

PTA price is strong, so polyester industry profits have been compressed, production enthusiasm of enterprises has declined, PTA has little chance of rising trend.

Since October, the price of PTA futures has been slightly stronger than that of other commodities, especially when methanol and PP and other chemicals at the end of October hit a new low. However, PTA declined significantly.

The reason is that the author thinks that the pressure of market inventory is not large, and the tight supply makes a clear support for PTA price.

However, the downstream polyester industry is more stressful and the industry chain contradiction is difficult to resolve. It is expected that the PTA price will be limited. The PTA1601 contract will be under technical pressure at 4800 yuan / ton.

Supply is still tight, short term PTA

Since April,

The operating rate basically runs below 70%, especially since July, with an average operating rate of only about 62.5%. The PTA device with long term parking is above 10 million tons.

Despite overcapacity, the actual supply remains tight and the pressure on excess capacity is temporarily eased.

Since August, PTA social inventories have continued to decline.

In the last two months, the CCFEI report showed that PTA's monthly social inventory fell by 200 thousand tons.

Although the PTA spot is becoming increasingly tense, it has made the PTA price weak before it changed.

With the improvement of the living conditions of the industry, PTA processing enterprises gradually turned from a large loss in July to a small loss. At present, most enterprises have made profits.

This is the most important factor in the current market, but it is also a potential negative.

Enterprises are actively producing, and potential profits remain.

It is understood that in October 25th, Yi Grand 3 million 750 thousand tons of PTA device was scheduled to stop and repair, but to ease the recent market PTA supply tensions, the device will drive ahead of schedule.

In addition, in addition to long-term parking of the Far East petrochemical, Xiang Lu petrochemical and some small devices, only the 600 thousand ton PTA device of the Jialong petrochemical company stopped at the end of October, and the restart time was uncertain. Other devices were basically operating normally.

Although the information on Monday revealed that due to the failure of key equipment, the 3 million 750 thousand PTA device can not be driven on schedule, and the market will be postponed until mid November. At present, the operating rate of PTA will remain at a low level of about 60%, and the short-term good will continue.

However, after mid November, the supply of PTA will increase significantly with the restart of Yanda grand device, and the good effect of spot cash will gradually weaken.

Polyester enterprises are losing money and downstream consumption is weakening.

The price of PTA is strong, which means that the cost of downstream polyester is strong, but the actual sales situation of polyester industry is not good.

The end of the "golden nine silver ten" peak season is not prosperous, downstream consumption performance is not warm, the polyester industry is difficult to pass the high cost down, resulting in the processing profit of the industry is compressed.

At present, most polyester enterprises are in a state of loss.

The stock is at a high level in the second half of the year.

Therefore, it is estimated that the starting rate of polyester industry will not increase on the current basis, which means that the consumption of PTA may decline.

The pressure of weak consumption is gradually pferred to the upper reaches, which limits the space for PTA prices to go up.

The author believes that on the one hand, the tight supply situation supports PTA prices in the short term, which has brought a long lost processing profit to the industry.

However, the improvement of processing profit has also become a potential negative effect, and the production enthusiasm of enterprises has improved accordingly.

After the middle of November, the resumption of yam's equipment will gradually alleviate the shortage of supply.

On the other hand, the price of PTA is strong.

The profit is compressed, the production enthusiasm of enterprises will decline, the demand for PTA in the future market may be reduced, thus limiting the uplink of PTA price, so PTA has little chance of rising trend.