The Fed'S Interest Rate Is Approaching And Volatility Will Increase.

By the market agencies to do more than the current debt policy short selling bonds, the debt this week shocks upward.

However, the bond yield is hard to come down, and the future debt will fluctuate with the increase of the Fed's interest rate.

On Monday and Tuesday, the volatility of treasury bond futures led to a significant downward trend in the long end yield of the spot market. Although the trend of the yield of the medium and long term bonds continued downward, the debt on Wednesday and Thursday continued to rise.

However, market participants believe that the lack of momentum in the short term continues to be supported by the cash market.

So on Friday

Under the crash, the debt also started to a certain degree of callback.

The 5 year treasury bond futures contract TF1603 closed at 99.975 yuan, or 0.28%.

The 10 year treasury bond futures contract T1603 closed at 98.695 yuan, or 0.46%.

This shows that this cycle of debt has fluctuated sharply. A large number of liquidation in a short period of time on Monday led to large fluctuations in the price. However, under the influence of the short base strategy, the overall debt prices still rose significantly, and the basis also narrowed.

From now on

The situation remains unchanged, and the market still needs to consider the boundary conditions after having undergone the repair of the base. On the one hand, the yield of the 1 year short end treasury bonds has not been down, and it remains at the level of 2.5%-2.6%, which restricts the space for the middle and long end interest rates to continue downward. On the other hand, the spread of the yield of the 10 year treasury bonds between China and the United States is still near the 80 basis points, which is at a low level in recent years.

Because of this, the yield of the spot bond market is difficult to effectively descend, and is still in a shock pattern.

"With the Federal Reserve raising interest rates approaching, the future yields of treasury bonds will also fluctuate. It is not recommended to catch up, and it is appropriate for us to watch on the sidelines or to do more at bargain prices."

Ji Chengxiang said.

For next week's market, Guotai Junan Futures analyst Xie Biqiong said that the interaction between treasury bond futures and the spot bond market, the trading atmosphere warming, driving the yield continued to decline, and the market microstructure also showed a narrowing of the term spreads to a lower level and a larger change in the maturity of the term debt. The pressure on the marginal debt adjustment increased, and the short-term intraday volatility is expected to expand.