Asset Bubbles Will Be Greater Than The Risk Of Stagflation.

We put forward three predictions in 2014-2015 years: the "new 5% is better than the old 8%". A shares "5000 is not a dream". The housing market "double the price of the first tier in the next 10 years, the three or four line is rising, the real estate investment is zero growth".

It has been verified successively.

In January 4, 2016, it proposed "recuperate" and sell high risk preferences for fake growth, and warm up the undervalued performance, recommending gold, bulk, real estate and so on.

In 2014, the long term inflection point of real estate came to the bottom, the economy accelerated to explore the bottom, the new round of monetary easing opened up, and the gap between money supply speed and GDP growth continued to widen, indicating that the super money did not flow into the real economy, but maintained a huge Pang's financing snowball.

After the precipitation, the circulation speed decreased, and the stock price bubbles and the rebound of the bulk cyclical products were promoted successively.

The excess money will chase the commodities with large elasticity and small demand, so the asset bubble will be greater than the risk of stagflation.

In 2016, the proactive fiscal policy was more positive, and the prudent monetary policy was slightly lax. It was estimated that 1 interest rates were cut 6 times a year.

Facing the Impossible Triangle of monetary excess, capital opening and fixed exchange rate, the policy will choose the internal target.

After the trial and error of 4 trillion fiscal stimulus and 2014-2015 year Monetary Policy in 2009, the supply side reform will be the main task in 2016. The key to the problem is how to achieve the goal of preparing the project from the perspective of political economy.

The successful reopening of the reform requires three conditions: political control, consensus and values.

The timetable and roadmap of the new round of reform: start with finance and taxation, end with state-owned enterprises, and finance in the middle.

Assets of large categories: 1)

The main tone of the year is recuperated.

Since the 5000 point adjustment, the market is gradually approaching the end of the adjustment.

Under the stock market game, the structural market will sell the pseudo growth of high risk preference, and embrace the direction of undervalued performance.

Future molecular L type, risk free interest rate will still have a certain drop in space but not big. The risk appetite of reform driven adjustment will fall again. The future market needs to be confirmed by the reform and landing.

Pay attention to the five tasks of supply side reform.

, financial and taxation reform, asset securitization, military reform, bulk rebound, gold and so on.

2) the bond market has been subject to short-term growth in the near future, such as the expected growth rate and stagflation expectations.

3) the total housing market is slowing down and the structure is divided. After the first line regulation, the demand is squeezed out into the satellite city of the metropolis circle.

4) the US dollar has reached its peak stage but is still in a strong cycle.

5) short term demand for bulk commodities will be rebounded by demand for replenishment and stable growth in China, but lack of basic support and over matching of gold.

Risk hints: the Fed raises interest rates and strong dollar; resource countries in emerging economies; China's economic L type is just weak balance and easy to be broken; three big black holes in the capital black hole financing snowball, then disorderly deleveraging and capital chain breakage; ten crisis nine real estate; in the chain of tight links, the policy's unprudent operation may be misread and amplified by the market.

There are three future prospects for development: breaking the border, setting up an economic L, smooth pition, active pformation, Taiwan, China, breaking up first, squatting and taking off, and forcing the crisis to reform, and Japan has been in the 1973-1981 year for 1992-2001 years.