Emerging Asian Currencies Are Somewhat Unpredictable.

On Tuesday (June 14th), the Asia Pacific region was temporarily relaxed, and the FED was about to convene a monetary policy conference. Meanwhile, the market before the euro referendum in Britain was also filled with caution.

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Opening up and going strong, the dollar fell overnight, but the fragile popularity suppressed the growth of the Asian currency, and the market was quiet.

The emerging Asian currencies declined against the risk of currency yen.

It is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will not act at this week's meeting, but investors are waiting for clues about when the central bank will further raise interest rates.

Reuters survey shows that

In September or even the earliest, interest rates were raised in July.

Economists fear that if the referendum result in Britain's withdrawal from the EU, it will make it possible.

Return to recession.

On the eve of the referendum in June 23rd, there seemed to be a great divergence of opinion among voters. According to the results of the two polls released by ICM on Monday, the "retreating Europe" faction extended the leading edge of the "left Europe" faction.

In addition, Philippines's peso fell by nearly 0.3% against the US dollar, which was inferior to that of other currencies.

Australian Federal Bank (CBA) in Singapore, the Asian exchange rate strategist Andy Ji said, "the dollar against the Asian currency trend was affected by the FOMC conference and the British referendum referendum on the impact of factors, FOMC is a tough stance, and the uncertainty surrounding the British withdrawal to Europe, apparently to boost the demand for the dollar, so that it is supported by Asian currencies.

However, affected by the demand for hedge, the currencies of the current account surplus economies should be better.

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Although the risk of British withdrawal has pushed the yen stronger, most institutions expect the Bank of Japan to stay put this week.

But HSBC is unique in its view that the BoJ may expand its easing on Thursday.

Izumi Devalier, an HSBC economist, said that if the BoJ fails to do anything this week, the market will assume that it has not taken the QE project seriously.

HSBC wrote in the report: "support for the Japanese central bank to expand the fundamentals of loose fundamentals is very sufficient.

In our view, if the Bank of Japan is reluctant to deal with the downside risks faced by the economy and prices, the market will increasingly question its determination to pursue inflation targets.

The decline in confidence in the Bank of Japan will result in the appreciation of the yen, which will make the situation of the Bank of Japan more difficult.

But most economists do not think so.

According to Bloomberg survey, only a little more than 1/4 of economists expect the Bank of Japan to act on Thursday, and more than half of economists expect to expand in July.

Nomura Securities believes that if the referendum fails in Britain next week, the yen will appreciate significantly no matter what decisions the Bank of Japan makes, so it is meaningless to push the devaluation of the yen this week.

There are also domestic political problems.

There are signs that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's support for the Bank of Japan is likely to weaken the momentum of the central bank to increase stimulus measures before the July 10th Senate election.