Domestic Cotton Prices Will Face Downward Pressure In The Short Term.

It is understood that the recent India flower prices continue to fall, India domestic spot

It fell by 1300 rupees / candle, or 3%, while cotton prices fell by about 10% in the past four weeks, but the India cotton mill's quotation remained strong and exports decreased. S-6

In addition, the new cotton market in Pakistan was small, cotton prices began to decline, cotton yarn prices continued to decline, of which 30S cotton pure combed yarn FOB export price cut 3 cents / kg, down 1%.

Technically speaking, this week's ICE cotton futures contract (December contract) fell four days, the largest weekly decline since October, and is expected to be dominated by oscillating finishing in the short term.

In summary, international cotton prices are expected to stabilize shortly after last week's pullback.

The pressure on the market in the northern hemisphere and the high yield of cotton in the United States are noteworthy.

It tends to be stable in the short term.

On the macro level, the data released by the European Statistics Bureau in October 17th showed that the final value of the euro zone's CPI annual rate in September rose by 0.4% year on year, which was in line with expectations.

In October 20th, the European Central Bank announced that the overnight interest rate would remain unchanged at -0.40%, and the interest rate for overnight loans would remain unchanged at 0.25%.

In terms of fundamentals, USDA reports that on October 2016 7-13, the net contract volume of US cotton exports in 2016/17 was 77 thousand tons, an increase of 50% over the previous week, a substantial increase over the previous four weeks average.

In 2016/17, the installed capacity of upland cotton was 29 thousand tons, a decrease of 16% from the previous week, a decrease of 24% over the previous four weeks and a new low of the year.

Among them, China signed a large number of 45 thousand tons of Upland Cotton in the United States, a big increase over the previous week's 13 thousand and 300 tons.

This week, the average price of M spot in the seven largest markets in the United States was 73.12 cents / pound, up 1.73 cents / pound from the previous week.

According to the statistics released by the National Bureau of statistics, China's GDP in the first three quarters was 529971 billion yuan, an increase of 6.7% over the same period last year.

Quarterly view, the first quarter increased by 6.7% over the same period, the two quarter increased by 6.7%, the three quarter increased by 6.7%, the first three quarters of the national economy steadily, steadily improving quality.

According to the data released by the central bank, at the end of 9, the balance of broad money (M2) was 151 trillion and 640 billion yuan, up 11.5% from the same period last year, the growth rate was 0.1 percentage points higher than the end of last month, 1.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year; the balance of narrow money (M1) was 45 trillion and 430 billion yuan, up 24.7% over the same period last year, the growth rate was 0.6 percentage points lower than the end of last month, 13.3 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year.

The scissors gap between M1 and M2 is also gradually shrinking and has reached a low level during the year.

Analysts believe that this means that the deposit is further activated, and the activity of the real economy has improved.

In terms of fundamentals,

The purchase price has been reduced.

The takeover price of cotton picking and machine picked cotton in Xinjiang was rapidly reduced to 7.30-7.40 yuan / kg, 6.40-6.50 yuan / kg.

The price of lint cotton dropped 600-800 yuan / ton compared with the first half of October. On the 21 day, the 3128 grade hand picked cotton wool weight quoted price in North Xinjiang was 15600-15700 yuan / ton, and the 3128 class cotton picking price was 14800-15000 yuan / ton.

At present, the "high credit limit" measures have not yet been lifted, and the purchasing funds of ginning plants are tight, spinning enterprises are holding down prices and the market is deadlocked.

Downstream cotton yarn prices fell, it is understood that Shandong, Hebei and other parts of the textile industry are mostly down slightly cotton yarn price of 100-200 yuan / ton, down 40S and below the yarn is more obvious, blended yarn prices also showed signs of decline.