China'S Foreign Trade Is Still Recovering.

In January this year, China's import and export achieved a good start. However, experts pointed out that although the better data show that the economy is in good condition, but this year's foreign trade situation can not be blindly optimistic, whether a "good start" can become "red throughout the year" remains to be seen. But it is gratifying to note that China's foreign trade development continues to optimize and improve in the main product mix, export areas, market formats, trade patterns and market players, and is moving from a trading power to a trading power.

At the time of slowing economic growth, the latest foreign trade data can be a shot in the arm for people to become "strong heart", making people's confidence in the long-term healthy and strong development of China's economy double. The reason is that China's import and export growth in January 2017 was substantially higher than expected. The data released by the General Administration of Customs showed that in January this year, China's gross import and export value increased by 19.6% compared with the same period last year, and the overall data and growth rate were "open". However, experts pointed out that there are still many difficulties and difficulties in starting from "a good start" to "red all year round". In 2017, China's foreign trade industry will still be affected by many uncertain factors and face enormous challenges.

In January this year, China's import and export growth is indeed more, and although the export growth rate is smaller than that of the import growth, our country actually has a relatively large volume of growth because of its relatively large export volume, which is certainly a very good trade status.

"At the same time, we should not be blindly optimistic about the foreign trade situation this year." Yuan Tao pointed out that, first of all, China's foreign trade declined in the first two years. In other words, the base of January this year is relatively low, and the increase in January is also related to the base. Secondly, it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the world economy or external environment on China's foreign trade, especially the trade relationship between China and the United States so far.

Pan Xiangdong, chief economist and Research Manager of galaxy securities, also said that the growth rate of imports and exports in China increased significantly in January, mainly due to the low base. The long-term growth of export growth is still constrained by the improvement of external demand, and the import growth rate in February may fall somewhat. In 2017, because of the rise of US protectionism represented by Trump, China's exports were facing greater uncertainty, and the trade surplus still had a potential decline.

Because the economy of the developed economies has improved, the marginal improvement is still weak. And we must guard against the escalation of trade frictions with developed countries. Trade frictions include conservative trade policies taken by foreign leaders and anti tariff barriers and frictions against China's excess capacity products. In addition, foreign trade data fluctuated in the one or two months of each year. It is not advisable to jump over the data in one month.

According to the reporter's understanding, China's foreign trade development continued to optimize and improve its main product structure, export areas and market formats in 2016, with the promotion of the supply side structural reform and the implementation of the "one belt and one way" initiative.

In this regard, Yuan Tao said that in recent years, China's exports are showing a good trend of change, not only in the number of increase, quality has also been greatly improved. For example, in terms of export structure, the export share of China's high-end industrial products is increasing. This means that China's industrial structure is moving from the middle and low end to the middle and high end. This also shows that a series of reforms such as domestic industrial upgrading are achieving obvious results, and the profits of China's foreign trade enterprises will also increase to a certain extent with the upgrading of industrial structure.

Yuan Tao, for example, from China Worker It can be seen from the rising income data that, for example, exporting shirts and sports shoes enterprises, after paying such a high labor cost, they can export so many products in the international market, indicating that the product structure of export enterprises has changed and the proportion of high-end products is increasing, because the profits of high-end products are higher than those of low-end products, and the profits of enterprises are more.

Gao Hucheng, Minister of Commerce, also said that in 2016, foreign trade was stabilized to a good goal, and the performance was optimized by structural optimization. Gao Hucheng said, "for a long time, the vast majority of China's export commodities are consumer goods and are now moving towards a period of equal emphasis on consumer goods and investment goods."

According to the Ministry of commerce data, the export volume of large scale complete sets of equipment in 2016 increased by more than 5%, and the export of high-tech aerospace and photoelectric communication equipment increased by more than 10%.

In the area of export, driven by the related policies of the "one belt and one way" initiative, China's exports to some parts of the "one belt and one road" area increased considerably last year. In 2016, China's exports to Pakistan, Russia, Poland, Bangladesh and India increased by 11%, 14.1%, 11.8%, 9% and 6.5% respectively. Over the same period, China's exports to the EU increased by 1.2%, exports to the US increased by 0.1%, exports to ASEAN declined by 2%, and the total of three accounted for 46.7% of China's total exports.

In addition, the new format has become a new driving force for China's foreign trade. In 2016, the import and export volume of cross-border electricity suppliers in China's pilot area reached 163 billion 700 million yuan, an increase of more than 1 times. The export volume of market purchasing trade was 203 billion 900 million yuan, an increase of 16%. Four pilot enterprises for comprehensive foreign trade services have served more than 4 SMEs. The new competitive advantage of foreign trade, which is based on technology, standards, brand, quality and service, is speeding up. New technology, new format and new mode are becoming the new kinetic energy of foreign trade development.

　　 Gao Hu Cheng Earlier, it was emphasized that China's foreign trade development needs to get rid of speed complex and digital complex, and focus on fostering new advantages in foreign trade competition. We should abandon the concept of "hero" in terms of speed and promote China's spanformation from a trading power to a trading power.

According to reporters, although previously Improvement trade It has played an important role in promoting the development of foreign trade and stabilizing employment. However, because processing trade exports always account for half of China's exports, insiders pointed out that China is a trading power rather than a trading power. After the international financial crisis in 2008, the proportion of processing trade in foreign trade decreased year by year under the influence of the international environment and the promotion of relevant domestic policies. In 2011, the proportion of general trade in exports for the first time exceeded processing trade, and this phenomenon has continued since then. In 2016, China's general trade import and export volume was 13 trillion and 390 billion yuan, an increase of 0.9%, accounting for 55% of China's total import and export value.

In this regard, Yuan Tao analysis, after the share of processing trade in China has been very high, but in the past ten years this state has begun to change, the trend is that the general trade continues to increase, processing trade continues to decrease. The increase in general trade shows that China's exports from raw materials to finished products are completed in their own country, which also represents the upgrading of China's production capacity, thus driving the change of export structure or export mode.

According to the Ministry of commerce data, the main body of China's export trade is also constantly optimized. In 2016, the proportion of private enterprises' exports accounted for 46%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points, and became the largest trade entity.

"Ten years ago, the largest number of exports were foreign-funded enterprises. Now the share of foreign-funded enterprises has been declining, and the share of state-owned enterprises has remained basically stable, with the largest increase in private enterprises." Yuan Tao said that in recent years, the import and export business of private enterprises has been increasing continuously. From this trend, the vitality of our economy and the vitality of foreign trade are still very good.

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