Before The End Of The Replenishment Period, The Spot Price Of Cotton Was Basically Stabilized, And The Turnover Was Reduced.

Last week (21-25 January), the number of vehicles in the mainland library was significantly reduced.

Starting from this week, the cotton mill will be on holiday, and spot trading will enter the new year's suspension.

Internal and external futures consolidation.

Customs news: 1-11 cotton imports, cotton yarn (net imports) increased, net exports of cotton fabrics decreased in three months, and the total domestic cotton consumption decreased by more than 1 million tons throughout the year.

National Bureau of statistics data in 2018 textile investment growth declined, clothing production decreased, confirms the annual cotton consumption decline, late afternoon cotton demand.

Cotton price B index 15477 yuan / ton, weekly rise of 22 yuan / ton, compared with Zheng cotton futures CF1905 contract, spot premium 222 yuan / ton, week expansion 47 yuan / ton.

Futures.

There was no news on the fundamentals. The replenishment of the library was completed over the years.

CF1905 closed at 15255 yuan / ton on Friday, and fell 25 yuan / ton in the week. It traded 1044528 hands, an increase of 155518, an increase of 17.5%. The intraday price fluctuation increased, and the turnover was relatively active.

By the end of January 25th, the top 20 seats in the position were more than 172906 hands, reducing 277 hands, 205635 empty handed, 6950 more hands, 32729 hands clearance, 7227 hands increase, second weeks in a row.

As the disk price rises to the 60 day moving average, funds are not optimistic about the continued rebound in the market outlook.

By the end of January 25th, there were no changes in buying 1080 sets of holding positions, selling 36825 insurance policies and increasing 710 hands.

The cycle turned to 1024 hands, after the futures rose, the price of the point was reduced.

As of January 25th, 16373 registered warehouse receipts increased by 691 weeks, the warehouse receipts were effectively forecast for 2184, and the week was reduced by 26. The forecast was still mainly from the internal warehouses, with 1193 forecasts. The mainland was mainly in the Jiangsu Treasury, with 559 forecasts, accounting for 55% of the total volume of the inland reservoir.

In previous years, there were less than 100 registered provinces in Shandong and Henan.

With sufficient registered resources, the rise in disk prices will attract the registration of warehouse receipts.

Monday's volume broke through the 60 day moving average, and Tuesday was a callback on schedule. On the basic level, the intensity of the replenishment was less than expected, and spot trading was in a pause.

Us disk: the future of Sino US negotiations is uncertain.

The main contract in March closed at 74.09 cents / pound, up 14 points in the week, the funds are relatively cautious, waiting for the consolidation.

On the spot.

Before the end of the replenishment period, the paction was obviously light, and the strength of the replenishment was less than expected.

With the support of futures, spot prices are relatively stable.

In the past 18 years, the price of new cotton is still strong, and the main force of procurement is still 17 years' resources.

The cost of cotton sliding quasi tax clearance in Brazil, West Africa and Central Asia is close to that of Xinjiang cotton. However, according to the net settlement of commodity inspection, there is more advantage in terms of price performance, and there are more cotton mills with sliding quasi tax quotas.

In the 17 year, "double 28" Xinjiang cotton price quoted 15300-15600 yuan / ton (public), the length 28/ strong 26/27 is about 15100-15400 yuan / ton, some index difference is in 15000 yuan / ton, the real estate new cotton 14500-15000 yuan / ton.

The price is 16000-16300 yuan / ton, and 17000-17500 yuan / ton for Brazil cotton, and 15500-15600 yuan / ton for cotton in West Africa and India.

The Xinjiang library quoted a gross weight of 15500-15700 yuan / ton. In the 18 years of the inland bank, Xinjiang's new cotton warehouse accounts for a relatively large proportion, and the quoted price was 15600-16100 yuan / ton, because the price was generally higher than that of 17 and cotton reserves, and there was little turnover. In the 18 year, the long staple cotton inland bank quoted 25500 yuan / ton.

New cotton acquisition.

The national acquisition is almost over, and processing is drawing to a close.

As of January 24th, lint processing in Xinjiang reached 5 million 10 thousand tons, close to last year.

Operation suggestion.

Before the end of the replenishment period 60 weeks ago, the cotton mill will continue to leave this week. The technical level is facing the resistance of the moving average. If there is no good news, this week may continue to adjust.

Pay close attention to trade wars and national policy information.