PTA Fell For 7 Days In A Row. Can It Rain Over Time In The Short Term?

In recent years, PTA prices continued to decline due to PX cost side pressure.

In regard to the PX plant, Hengli has successfully driven its first reformer in March 15th, and the 2 million 250 thousand ton / year production line is expected to output PX in March 25th.

Fuhai has set up another 800 thousand ton / year PX plant in March 17th, and now it is loading up.

The demand for downstream polyester is common. The mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are concentrated in the market near 60-80%, and some good factories are doing well.

In the absence of favorable conditions in the upper and lower reaches, can PTA weather the storm?

Oil prices are strong and PX is down.

OPEC+ reduction is still a protective umbrella for oil prices, although the April meeting was rarely cancelled, the global oil "duopoly" Saudi and Russia had a crack in the delay in reducing production.

After 17 hours of Asian market, the oil pan in the United States has set a new high in the past 4 months.

On the PX side, now that the new PX production capacity will enter the launch period, the profit of the PX link will be compressed for a long period.

In March 20th, the 2 million 170 thousand ton / year PX plant of Hengli refinery will be trial run, which will lead to divergence in whether the PX price can maintain its strength.

The load is rising and the demand is light.

PTA device, Hua Bin Petrochemical 1 million 400 thousand tons of equipment was restarted in March 10th, Wanli polyester fault has been resumed after a short stop, the domestic PTA load increased 6.3 percentage points to 86.7% this week.

In 3-5, the planned PTA overhaul in China will involve more than 10 million tons / year of production, accounting for about 20% of the total domestic capacity, and the supply of PTA will be tightened.

In terms of demand, the downstream polyester load increased by 1.7 percentage points to 86.4%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms increased by 2 percentage points to 86% over last week.

The cash flow of polyester products has improved significantly compared with last week. With the restart of some devices, polyester load will continue to pick up next week.

However, with the weakening of PTA futures prices, market mindset has turned to prudence, the enthusiasm of terminal purchasing has been weakened, and downstream polyester production and marketing has dropped.

To sum up: at present, the overall inventory of PTA and MEG is still high; Hengli PX equipment will start soon, and the PX price and crude oil price will have a split trend. The cost side of PTA will collapse significantly.

Polyester production and marketing rate 50%-90% today, compared with the same period last week, there is a certain warming.

On the whole, PTA will continue to maintain a weak trend in the near future. In terms of term structure, the long-term discount rate will continue to increase.