Participants' Mentality Weakened, Acrylonitrile Prices Fell 8.64%

In May, the price settlement price of domestic acrylonitrile mainstream Sinopec Sales Company was 14950 yuan / ton, up 1150 yuan / ton compared with April, and the growth rate was 8.33%. Before and after the announcement of manufacturer's settlement price, domestic acrylonitrile spot price dropped rapidly, and the mainstream market price dropped to 14800 yuan / ton at 16200 yuan / ton, or 8.64%. The direct reason for the different performance of spot market and factory contract is the change of participants' mindset.

Domestic acrylonitrile main market price trend

Source: lung Chung

From the acrylonitrile factory contract, the overall implementation in May was smooth, the inventory was generally low, and the quotation also rose unilaterally, of which the Shanghai SECCO listing price was strong at 15550 yuan / ton at the end of the month. On the one hand, the main downstream ABS and acrylamide enterprises started relatively stable; on the other hand, the American device is expected to resume in mid July, and global supply is still tight, and some downstream factories still need to buy from the spot market. In addition, Shandong Hai Jiang device has not been restarted. Fushun petrochemical, Jilin petrochemical and Shanghai SECCO also have maintenance plans during 6-7 months, and the overall supply of acrylonitrile in China also has a decreasing trend.

Parking trend of acrylonitrile plant at home and abroad in 5-7

Unit: 10000 tons / year

Source: lung Chung

Although the supply of acrylonitrile is still not abundant, downstream users are breeds resistance as prices continue to rise. The domestic acrylic fiber plant has begun to limit production. In May, Jilin chemical fiber and Hangzhou bay were overhauled, and the load of the industry was reduced to less than 60%, and the difficulty of starting the work in the future was obviously improved. It is expected to gradually affect the production and sale of acrylonitrile manufacturers. At the same time, although the domestic ABS plant is still stable, terminal demand performance is weak, and future expectations are not optimistic. Moreover, ABS has seriously squeezed production profits, and some foreign manufacturers have cut back on construction.

Before the announcement of factory settlement, the spot price callbacks are mainly based on the actual performance of supply and demand side, and prices need to eliminate some of the price bubbles. But after the settlement, the spot price further goes down. The direct factor is the change of mentality level, and the fundamental factor is the weakness of terminal demand. Moreover, the long term market bearish, 7-8 month downstream overall demand into the off-season, at the same time, the United States, the two phases of the production of Ernest and SLP expect production, so some businesses began to slam the market. In addition, acrylic manufacturers also sell raw materials at a low price again. It is reported that the price is near 14500 yuan / ton, which has further suppressed the spot market.

On the whole, it is expected that the market fundamentals will be relatively balanced in June, but in the 7-8 month, the market is mostly bearish and the mentality of the operators is not good enough. The spot market is hard to find a driving force, and traders are expected to continue to reduce their shipments. However, acrylonitrile manufacturers will continue to play a major role in production and marketing stability. Therefore, the future price of acrylonitrile mainstream market is still expected to fall behind, but there is no risk of plunging in the near future.