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Later Development Of Ethylene Glycol: The Market Profit Of More Than 2 Thousand Tons Is No Longer Coming.

2019/6/3 10:33:00 14031

"What do you think of the development of ethylene glycol in China?" Recently, many people have come to consult this question. My answer is not optimistic. I can no longer see the market profit of more than 2 thousand per ton last year. They said I was too absolute, too pessimistic, below my "evidence", facts are more eloquent.

First, the lowest price in the past five years.

Fig. 1 Comparison of market prices of ethylene glycol in China

Source: lung Chung

As shown in Figure 1, the price of domestic ethylene glycol has started to decline since the beginning of 9 months in 2018. In October, the domestic sea Shell two phase 480 thousand, Hua Lu Heng Sheng 500 thousand, Anhui red Quartet 300 thousand put into operation, the domestic supply power has increased too fast, the demand for polyester in the lower reaches has been increasing slowly, and the phenomenon of supply exceeding demand in the country has begun to appear. Since the profits of ethylene glycol enterprises in the past 18 years are about 3000 yuan / ton, the profits are huge and the domestic demand gap is still large, the share of imports is increasing. Ignoring the domestic capacity growth rate is the main reason for the continued decline of the market price in the 19 years.

Two. In the past five years, the main port stocks are the highest.

Fig. 2 Comparison Chart of domestic ethylene glycol port inventory

Source: lung Chung

As shown in Figure 2, port inventory in 2019 was the highest in history, reaching about 1400000 tons at a time. Before that, domestic supply increased, import sources increased, and downstream consumption was less than the increase in quantity, resulting in high inventory. Due to cost reasons, domestic ethylene glycol, especially coal enterprises, had no choice but to downsize to avoid risks. Forced polyester enterprises to decline, is really worse, just getting better, and once again covered with a layer of ash.

Three, the number of new devices is increasing.

Table 1 domestic ethylene glycol production capacity table

Corporate name	capacity	Remarks
Xinjiang Tianye (Group) Co., Ltd.	Ten	Two thousand and nineteen End of the year
Anyang Yongjin Chemical Co., Ltd.	Twenty	Two thousand and nineteen End of the year
Shanxi Xianggang Hongtong Coal Chemical Co., Ltd.	Twenty	Two thousand and nineteen year
Shaanxi Yanchang Petroleum (Group) Co., Ltd.	Ten	Two thousand and nineteen year
Inner Mongolia Connell Coal Chemical Industry Co., Ltd.	Thirty	Two thousand and nineteen year
Shaanxi Weihua Co., Ltd.	Thirty	Two thousand and nineteen End of the year
Shenhua Refco Group Ltd	One hundred (40)	Two thousand and nineteen year
Jian Yuan Coal Coking Co., Ltd.	Twenty-six	Two thousand and twenty-two year
Yanzhou coal Erdos Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. (Inner Mongolia Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd.)	Forty	Two thousand and twenty-two year
Inner Mongolia Yi Gao Coal Chemical Technology Co., Ltd.	Twelve	Two thousand and twenty-two year
Xinjiang production and Construction Corps Tian Ying petrochemical Limited by Share Ltd	Fifteen	Two thousand and nineteen year
Xinjiang Tianye (Group) Co., Ltd.	Sixty	Two thousand and twenty-two year
Hubei three Ning chemical Limited by Share Ltd	Sixty	Two thousand and twenty-one year
Jiu Tai energy Inner Mongolia Co., Ltd.	One hundred (50)	Two thousand and twenty year
Inner Mongolia Yitai Petrochemical Co., Ltd.	Twenty	Two thousand and nineteen year
Xinjiang Sheng Wo energy	Forty	Two thousand and nineteen year
Tong Kun + Baosteel	One hundred and twenty	Two thousand and twenty-two year
Zhejiang Petrochemical Co., Ltd.	Eighty	Two thousand and nineteen year
Hengli Petrochemical Co., Ltd.	One hundred and eighty (90)	Two thousand and nineteen year
Total	Nine hundred and seventy-three

As shown in Table 1, there will be 9 million 730 thousand tons of equipment put into operation in the late stage. There are still no statistics, such as: Official Declaration in April 24th. In May 6th, the reporter learned from the construction site of the Guangxi Shanxi wonon Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. ethylene glycol co production LNG, the overall progress of the project has been completed more than 50%. In from May 22nd to 24th, the Yulin Coal Chemical Group Co., Ltd., a new material demonstration project of coal quality utilization, was put into practice in the first phase of the 1 million 800 thousand ton / year ethylene glycol engineering air separation plant. And so on.

Conclusion: In terms of import volume in 18 years, there is a about 9000000 gap in demand in China. The new increase is more than about 9000000. From the cost point of view, can we win the Middle East? The answer is No. Therefore, the volume of imports will decrease, and the estimated reduction of 4 million tons will be great. But the new increase is obviously higher than expected. Obviously, there will be an oversupply situation in China. Can prices rise? Can an enterprise make profits? The answer is negative. I don't say much. I'm worried about the development of ethylene glycol in China.