July Opening 2 Consecutive Days Of PTA Market Prices Or Continue To Strengthen.

In the afternoon of July 2nd, the futures market was hot. PTA futures were all trading. As of press release, the main contract PTA1909 quoted 6448 yuan / ton, or 5.02%, and refreshed two and a half months. Since late June, PTA has bid farewell to previous adjustment, and has gradually stepped out of the pattern of strong rise. Since June 24th, it has surged for 6 consecutive trading days, with a cumulative increase of more than 16.47%.

(PTA1909 contract daily chart)

Upstream cost support continues to increase

Since the easing of trade tensions, the PTA price has rebounded sharply. On the basis of equality and mutual respect, China and the United States resumed economic and trade consultations, and the us no longer imposed new tariffs on China's export products. The focus of international oil prices rose, resulting in a good support for the cost side of PX.

The main price of PTA in the lower reaches is strong due to the inflow of capital and the demand for polyester is better. The accompanying price of spot prices has increased, and the enthusiasm of Asian PX market has increased. Therefore, the macro factor is one of the factors to drive up the price of PTA, and it will continue to be strong in a short time.

The change of supply and demand pattern is better.

Since June, the PTA factory has frequently appeared the news that the device stopped short because of the fault, which made the prediction of the accumulated warehouse situation in June changed to the situation of going to the warehouse, and the supply and demand of PTA had a good transformation. In addition, the mainstream factory controlled the price very much, which made the tight situation of the spot market circulation tighter, the base continued to strengthen, and the spot price showed a high trend.

Under such circumstances, the stock of polyester products has dropped significantly, and the start-up rate of polyester factories has also been gradually improved, thus supporting the rigid demand for PTA and driving the inventory of PTA.

Weaving terminal needs to be verified

Although the polyester end starts to pick up and store up significantly, the overall load of the domestic weaving device is still low and the inventory is high due to the fact that the terminal weaving process has not really recovered. The drop in stock of polyester products is still dominated by stock transfer. Whether the inventory can be effectively digested to the weaving stage is the key point that we need to pay attention to next.

If stocks can be transmitted downward, the market will continue. If the weaving end is not substantially improved, the inventory can not be effectively transmitted, and the future market trend still needs to be questioned.

On the whole, cost support, capacity decline and demand increase, the market's worries about oversupply of PTA have been effectively alleviated. Moreover, in the face of stringent environmental protection, the market's concern about the shortage of PTA will increase. Under the support of the change of supply and demand pattern, the PTA price is expected to continue to strengthen in the near future. Once the 6500 front-line neckline pressure level is exceeded, the V reversal market will take shape, and a big wave market will open. ( Source: zhuochuang information and futures gateway