Attention: Vietnam'S Textile And Clothing Exports Will Face Challenges

Vinatex said that Vietnam's exports will still face difficulties in the first half of 2023, but not too bad; He is still surprised by the unpredictable changes in 2022, such as the Russia Ukraine conflict, and the soaring oil prices, inflation, and interest rates, which have led to a sharp decline in demand in the import market.

However, Vinatex estimates that in 2022, its overall revenue will exceed 19.5 trillion Vietnamese dong (about $830 million), up 15% from the same period in 2021, 8% more than the original target, and its overall profit will exceed 1 trillion Vietnamese dong, 14.6% higher than the original target. In many markets, the above data is quite encouraging.

Lentien Truong, President of Vinatex, proposed three possible scenarios in 2023. In the best case, the global economy will stabilize after the second quarter, and the geopolitical conflict will end; The group's exports will grow by 4-5% compared with 2022. In the medium case, instability continues, inflation still exists, and interest rates still increase before the third quarter; Its exports will remain unchanged compared with 2022. In the worst case, the global economy will fall into recession, and the trade income in 2023 may decrease by about 5% compared with that in 2022.

According to the forecast of Vietnam Textile and Clothing Association (VITAS), Vietnam's export amount will reach 44.5 billion US dollars in 2022, up 10% from 2021.

Vinatex pointed out that in the optimistic situation, the textile and clothing export in 2023 could reach 470-48 billion dollars, and the worst situation could reach 45-46 billion dollars; It is also added that how enterprises adapt to market changes will affect their development in various scenarios.

Under optimistic circumstances, the global market instability will be controlled, and all economic activities of the textile and clothing industry will resume after the first quarter of 2023; Trade revenue can reach 48 billion US dollars.

However, Chairman Wu Dejiang of VITAS said that in the second case, the global market would recover in the second half of 2023, with an estimated export volume of 45 billion US dollars.

At present, if there is no long-term order for textile and clothing products in the international market, enterprises can turn to produce products with lower value; In 2022, with its diversified markets and products, the growth trend can still be seen.

No matter what scenario, the textile and clothing market will not rebound before the first half of 2023.

However, experts believe that there will still be good news in 2023, such as: the COVID-19 epidemic is under control, the world is gradually adapting to the new normal, the Asia Pacific region is expected to become the fastest growing region, China will loosen epidemic prevention policies, and logistics costs will be reduced.