Electricity Supplier'S Four Quarter Earnings Report: What Is The Signal Given By Ali And Jingdong?

Policy regulation is becoming more stringent.

2015

Bad days, 2016 will be more sad, in addition to the market situation is not good, the intensity of policy regulation is also more and more stringent.

All parts of the world are engaged in e-commerce parks, and business departments across the country are also studying measures to further strengthen supervision. The e-commerce regulatory platform is also being built up, and more and more electricity providers are in charge.

At the end of 2014, I wrote "the era of e-commerce dividend policy has passed". Now it seems that the good days are over.

Ali and

Alibaba in the fourth quarter of 2015 was brighter in its earnings and exceeded the market expectations. Alibaba achieved 2 trillion and 950 billion sales in 2015. More than 98% of China's online shopping users are all Ali users. It is said that 11% of the total retail sales of social consumers are completed by Alibaba. But these data have not played a role in stopping the decline of their share price. At present, the stock price has been near the lowest 60 US dollar in history.

Unlike Alibaba, which keeps profits every quarter, another giant Jingdong is losing money, but the growth rate is obviously greater than that of Alibaba, so the market has more preference for Jingdong.

But in the three quarter earnings report of 2015, we can see that in addition to continuing to maintain losses, its revenue growth is lower than market expectations. Although the slowdown is not so obvious, it is alarming enough from the perspective of financial analysis.

Although the two earnings reports are not quite the same external performance, the message conveyed is exactly the same, that is, the growth rate is slowing down.

In Ali's earnings report, GMV is not a mandatory figure. Revenue is a must to provide, that is, how much money you earn from these GMV. In the Jingdong's earnings report, the GMV number after taking off the pat is the speed of its revenue growth and GMV growth, which directly reflects the overall market sentiment.

Therefore, although Ali's financial report is good, it can be understood as the result of the promotion of the degree of monetization in the context of the slowdown of GMV growth. The Jingdong financial report can best reflect the situation of the whole market.

In fact, in 2015, Q4 was the slowest growth in the Alibaba. In 2015, the four quarter of 2015 was 40%, 34%, 28% and 22% respectively. In 2014, the growth rate of GMV was not lower than that of 45% year on year.

Jingdong's performance on the growth rate is even better. In the first three quarters of 2015, the annual growth rate of Jingdong was 99%, 62% and 71% respectively, as the three quarter was the 618 largest promotion in two or three consecutive months, so the slight increase in the growth rate of the three quarter was not surprising.

The key is Jingdong's fourth quarter earnings figures. Losses can still be sustained, but if the growth rate falls sharply, Jingdong's share price will not be guaranteed $20.

Internet traffic before 2009 is very cheap. After the start of the business, the price of traffic has risen steadily.

If that situation can last for 5 years, Baidu will not be worth less than 100 billion.

As a matter of fact, e-commerce has been in a tight traffic situation since 2014, because traffic can never be dried up. There is always a ceiling for Chinese people. Even the second child has been released without warning. This further illustrates that the population base that maintains high traffic growth has been shaken.

China's current electricity supplier users have about 420 million, two to three times the United States, which is already a high penetration rate.

User habits have been preliminarily formed, and the education cost of developing the elderly and children to electricity providers users is too high, and new users are facing a drying up situation.

There will be no more scenes that can get low-cost users a few years ago.

From the macroeconomic situation, it does not support the rapid development of the electricity supplier.

Although double 11 Tmall put 91 billion 200 million of the big satellites in 2015, the momentum of the overall macroeconomic downturn has not changed. PMI has been shrinking for several consecutive quarters under the ups and downs.

Under these circumstances, it is unrealistic to think that e-commerce is thriving.

Because of this, Alibaba and Jingdong have launched a rural electric business plan in 2015, trying to gain sustained high growth momentum in the way of developing new markets.

But from the actual situation, trying to use rural electric business to achieve this goal is basically a joke, but it is a fact that it is not good for itself or international strategy.

The performance of small partners

How are the other business providers like Alibaba and Jingdong going to see their performance in the capital market?

Originally, B2C ranked third in the suning.com electricity supplier, 2015 to 180 degrees turn, into the embrace of Alibaba, from the old enemy to a lover today.

Why this is not difficult to explain.

Between 2012 and 2014, there are two deadly enemies in front of suning.com. One is the Jingdong that constantly erodes the share of its appliance stores. The two is Tmall, which hinders its implementation of the open platform strategy.

The reason why Suning is fighting on the two line is that it can not defeat Jingdong in a positive way. It is the best way to defeat Jingdong by competing with Tmall for its own open platform strategy.

Strategically speaking, this idea is not bad, but it is problematic to implement. Sunning's "Yuntai" has strong traditional thinking in designing logic, and it has many restrictions on merchants.

In the whole market environment is not very good case, boycott Jingdong online erosion, a better way is to join hands with Tmall.

Jingdong is the core interests of Suning, and Tmall is only an opponent of Suning. As the open platform has not been done yet, it is also very good to deal with Jingdong together.

In addition to cross shareholding, Tmall and Suning have already launched cooperation in logistics and after sales, and Suning has also opened flagship stores to Tmall.

This marriage is a denial of what sunning has done in the past 5 years and sunning's abandonment of its third largest B2C status. Suning will no longer have the chance to become China's WAL-MART.

The performance of their partners is Amazon, Gome online and Dangdang.

Amazon's sales in China have always been a mystery, but it is generally believed that it will be around 300-500 billion yuan, ranking fourth to fifth in China's B2C business.

Some data analysis shows that Amazon's market share is not only far less than suning.com, but also better than Dangdang, Gome online and vip.com.

However, Amazon China's publicly available monitoring indicators outside GMV are all in the forefront, including activity, Baidu index and so on. Amazon China has downplayed the total number of GMV and deliberately weakened it.

In 2015, after cross-border electric business boom, Amazon found an opportunity to expand its skills. Amazon's global consumption increased by 6 times compared to 2014. The consumption of Chinese consumers in the year of 2015 exceeded the sum of the past 20 years.

The products purchased and sold by Amazon are all self operated, which first guarantees the quality of products. Secondly, thanks to the 20 years of logistics and distribution system built by Amazon, the time of delivery to China is the shortest.

Amazon China's 2016 sales growth is expected to double, mainly depending on the growth of global share purchase. This is a business which is not affected by the scene of domestic electricity supplier market, and consumers' willingness to buy international goods has been rising steadily.

In 2016, Amazon China relied on the global purchase business to reach B2C third.

Gome online exerting great force in 2015, initially set a target to attack the B2C electricity supplier. It is unclear if the completion is not finished, and its efforts can be seen.

In the past few years, all the means used by e-commerce have been tried by Gome online in 2015, including price war and logistics distribution experience.

In fact, Gome is a company that has a very strong supply chain management capability and can get goods at a lower price. In this respect, it is only sunning.

It is valuable that Gome online has not abandoned it in the face of changes in the market environment, and has been tirelessly upward.

From Dangdang's earnings report, the company's situation is worrying, less than a billion GMV a year, the loss that can not be eliminated at the expense of revenue, the annual stock price fell by 32%.

However, this does not seem to matter. Dangdang actually withdrew from the B2C business competition in 2014, and then returned to the dominant books after the impact on the mother and baby and the fashion business.

At present, Dangdang can only be considered as a vertical electricity supplier, but its advantages in the book industry remain.

But in addition to books outside the electricity supplier market, with Dangdang actually has little relationship.

The performance of small partners 1 shop, vip.com, jumei.com

Shop No. 1 has gone through a tortuous road from its initial self operation to the later open platform, and then to the expansion of its products to the comprehensive platform electricity supplier.

2015 is a turning point for shop No. 1. Leaving just now means that shop No. 1 will give up the dream of B2C completely and turn it into the WAL-MART led online consumer product super model.

This logic is not difficult to understand. Now it is no longer the same as before. If you want to break through in the B2C field, you will not be able to cut corners. It will be very difficult to take a shortcut. If you continue to go in this direction, it will affect the brand reputation of WAL-MART, which is the result of WAL-MART's acquisition of 100% stake.

The 2015 is the year of vip.com's curtain call. The stock price has dropped by 50%, and it is back to the starting point of 2014.

When everyone looks bad and moves forward, everyone looks bad, especially when there is not much change in fundamentals. This is vip.com.

Vip.com's growth rate remained above 50% in 2015, and the flash buying mode was numerous, but it did not constitute a substantial impact on it.

The biggest challenge of vip.com in 2015 was actually the rise of cross-border electricity providers. The influx of some cheap and high quality goods made it difficult for vip.com to maintain the high cost performance of flash shopping, which was the reason why its share price fell.

But in general, because vip.com itself is located in the market below two or three lines, domestic brands will inevitably have difficulties in 2016 because of the downward trend of the economy. The foundation for vip.com to maintain high-speed growth is still there, but it is more difficult than the previous two years.

Jumei.com was the most frustrated in 2015. According to the current stock price calculation, jumei.com lost 60% of its market value in 2015, while its current share price has dropped by 80% from the highest price in 2015, and has fallen to 85% from the highest price in 2014. A company with a market value of tens of billions of dollars now has less than 8 hundred million of its market value.

In less than two years, jumei.com took the biggest roller coaster in history.

As a vertical beauty makeup business, jumei.com also has platform dream after its listing, hoping to implement the open platform strategy.

But they soon realized that after the third party merchants came in, the situation was not well controlled, and the chaos began to appear. So they decisively cut down the open platform, changed all cosmetics into self-employed, and entered the mother and baby and cross-border electricity providers.

It should be said that jumei.com has made some efforts in cross-border e-commerce, but there is still some strength. But from the fourth level and the next step of the stock price, it seems that the market acceptance will take some time.