Why Does Henan Textile Association Strive For National Reserves?

"Company

Inventory can also be used in less than a month, and it can only be bought from middlemen when it is used up, but the price will be higher. "

A large Henan

Group general manager Chen Yu (a pseudonym) told reporters.

Commodities in the near future

Usher in the 2 market.

Iron ore, screw steel and other varieties have returned to the high point near the year, while Zheng cotton main force is in the 12 day intraday, set a new high of 16010 yuan / ton.

Since April, the biggest increase in the main contract of zhengmian has reached 56.42%.

At the same time, the national reserve cotton sales base price is also rising, which makes the downstream textile enterprises once again in trouble.

Reporters learned that the current national cotton storage volume of only 20 thousand tons per day, far lower than the market had expected, and cotton spinning enterprises are in a low inventory state, in the short term, the market is in short supply, resulting in cotton futures and current prices go hand in hand.

In this regard, the Henan Textile Industry Association (hereinafter referred to as "Henan Textile Association") recently issued a document to the NDRC for help, and put forward a number of suggestions to increase the intensity of national cotton storage and to investigate and deal with malicious speculation of cotton reserves.

Li Jifeng, Secretary General of Henan Textile Association, said that the sharp rise and fall of cotton prices had great harm to the textile industry. At present, the relevant proposals have been formed and submitted to the relevant ministries and commissions. "From the perspective of industry, we also hope that cotton prices will remain relatively stable."

A letter for help

The plight of Henan's cotton spinning enterprises may be more serious than imagined.

"When the import of cotton resources is over, the paction price of national cotton stores is increasing, and purchasing difficulties have caused most enterprises to stop production and halt production, and the situation is expanding."

In the proposal submitted to the NDRC, Henan Textile Association pointed out.

At the same time, "domestic commodity cotton is nearly sold out, and the competition for state-owned cotton is fierce. The main reason is that the amount of delivery is too small, and the actual delivery amount is less than 40% of the national development and Reform Commission's commitment. This causes the textile enterprises to panic and intensify competition, and enterprises appear to be" on the boil ".

In April this year, the national development and Reform Commission issued the "arrangements for the national cotton reserve rotation", and confirmed that this year's national cotton storage and rotation business took place from May 3rd to August 31st.

The notice pointed out that under normal circumstances, the number of daily reserve cotton sales is not more than 50 thousand tons, and the specific number of rounds is based on actual pactions.

If the market price of domestic and foreign market has obviously increased rapidly for a period of time, the turnover rate of the auction sale of reserve cotton will exceed three days or more than 70% days a week, and the number of sales will be increased appropriately.

"In actual dumping, sometimes the volume of a day is less than 20 thousand tons."

Sichuan, a state-owned textile enterprise official said, and after the cotton price has fully digested the single day dumping 50 thousand tons of information, the result is expected to change, so cotton prices rebounded sharply.

In the case of textile industry in June 30th, for example, the volume of state cotton storage is only 18026 tons.

Correspondingly, Zheng cotton's main contract rose 4.49% on that day.

Because of the low inventory status of textile enterprises at present, their enthusiasm for participating in the auction of national cotton stores is relatively high. In May this year, the turnover rate of State Cotton stores exceeded 97%, which triggered the conditions for "appropriately increasing the number of listed sales".

However, the national cotton store has not been released in this way, and the average daily turnover remains at around 20 thousand tons, which is the main problem that textile enterprises have been criticised recently.

On the one hand, there is a limited supply. On the other hand, textile enterprises still face competition among middlemen.

"Many traders, as well as warehouse dealers, see cotton prices continue to rise, so they are also involved in the auction of national cotton stores, which makes a large proportion of cotton reserves not directly into the hands of textile enterprises."

Chen Yu introduced.

Still in the "rice pot" spinning enterprises, but in desperation only to the NDRC and other departments for help.

To this end, the Henan Textile Association put forward a number of suggestions, such as "increasing the quantity of inputs, ensuring 50 thousand tons per day", "normalizing the auction of cotton reserves, no time frame", and "checking up the cotton reserves with malicious intent".

According to the foregoing sources, the state reserve bureau still has nearly 10 million tons of cotton reserves. Why do we still need to squeeze toothpaste?

Since 2011, cotton storage and storage have been carried out many times in China, but at that time cotton was still high and the cost of storage and storage was as low as 19800 yuan / ton.

And even after nearly two months of substantial rebound, the price of cotton futures is no more than 16000 yuan / ton, and in July 12th, the paction price of national cotton stores was only 14104 yuan / ton.

Where is the inflection point?

"The biggest feature of the cotton market now is the shortage of large stocks."

A manager of a Futures Company sales department in Shandong believes that the upward trend of large inventory pressure is difficult to sustain, and that is often a sharp drop after the boom.

And this scene, as early as 2010, cotton futures have been staged.

At that time, Zheng cotton's main contract surged from 16000 yuan to 34870 yuan, but then plummeted back to around 21000 yuan.

After this campaign, Lin Guangmao became famous after 80 years, but the sharp rise and fall of cotton prices also caused many traders and textile enterprises to go bankrupt and the whole industry was reshuffled.

"At that time, cotton warehouse receipts rose to a maximum of more than 2000 yuan, and a few pactions were scheduled for a day."

A representative from Zhengzhou City told reporters that the number of cotton warehouse receipts on the spot was not large in the near future, even if compared with the first half of the year, the number of cotton warehouse receipts was also reduced.

The so-called "cash in hand" refers to the warehouse receipts and sales pactions between the seller and the buyer before the futures contract has expired.

With this approach, traders and enterprises can buy and sell goods through futures markets.

A Zhengzhou cotton research and development pointed out that at present, national cotton stores can not enter the futures market, they can not be registered as warehouse receipts, and the supply of spot goods for registered warehouse receipts has been scarce. Therefore, it is not realistic for textile companies to get goods from the futures market.

The short-term imbalance between supply and demand of cotton undoubtedly provides excellent opportunities for speculation.

In terms of specific data, it is the turnover and position of Zheng cotton's main contract.

Data show that in June 21st, the main position of Zheng cotton was 267 thousand hands, up to 493 thousand hands in July 13th, while the turnover increased from 593 thousand to 13 on the 1 million 472 thousand hand during the same period.

"The rebound in commodity market this year is particularly obvious in the promotion of capital."

According to the aforementioned research and development people, after 5 years of bear market, most commodities have fallen to historical lows, which undoubtedly attracted a large number of speculative funds.

At the same time, the futures market has limited capacity and can continue to pull up prices without needing too much capital.

It is worth noting that since the hand holds nearly 10 million tons of reserve cotton and has become the main force of social supply, cotton prices will also usher in a turning point when the late throwing and storage rhythm is quickening.

This week, the State Cotton store paction situation has begun to show this trend.

In from July 11th to 13th, the state cotton storage volume exceeded 30 thousand tons in three consecutive days, while the turnover in July 7th and 8th was only 21 thousand tons and 23 thousand tons respectively.

Another important signal will appear in the futures market.

The manager of the foregoing business department pointed out that, referring to the trend of black commodities in the early stage, the paction cost of investors will rise if late trading takes cotton futures to restrict warehouses or raise margin and fee.

At that time, speculation on cotton will also come to an end.