Demand Growth Is Limited, Acrylonitrile Fatigue Is Difficult To Change.

In October, the acrylonitrile market was coming to an end. Sinopec's settlement price was 11300 yuan / ton this month, which was higher than the expected level. The middlemen mostly indicated a loss, because the spot price had dropped to the level of 11000 yuan at the beginning of the second half of the month. The main manufacturers' smooth sales and controllable inventory are the main factors to support the manufacturers' settlement level this month. Although the supply increased by nearly 30 thousand tons this month, some of them needed to replenish the supply gap last month, thus alleviating the excess pressure this month.

After the announcement of manufacturers' settlement this month, the acrylonitrile market is in a stalemate. Traders are subject to cost constraints and continue to be cautious. But in the meantime, there are still some cheap goods circulating in the northern market, prices ranging from 10300-10500 yuan / ton, but the overall volume is not much. The emergence of low price goods reflects the weak market expectations from the side. And recently, from the perspective of market feedback, more businesses are also taking an empty attitude towards the acrylonitrile market next month.

The expectation of acrylonitrile market is mainly based on two aspects: adequate supply and limited demand growth. First of all, the market supply side, despite the Anqing Petrochemical overhaul, but in 9-10, the new two phase of the state of Shandong and the two manufacturers of Hai Jiang in November are expected to be fully operational in November, and the output will reach more than 30 thousand tons. In addition, with the end of the overhaul of foreign equipment, the price of the external market is also dropping, and the export volume of acrylonitrile in November is expected to decrease.

Compared with supply increment, downstream demand growth is still limited. Since the ABS industry has been operating at a load of over 90% since September, it will be difficult to increase in the future. Although the performance of the acrylamide industry is good this year, the scale of its industry is generally small, the stability of production is not high, and the consumption is difficult to increase obviously. The downstream acrylic fiber industry, which has the most direct impact on the acrylonitrile industry, has generally been under 70% since August. Despite the improvement in terminal demand during the Jin Jiuyin ten period, the output of acrylic fiber has not increased significantly.

Starting and downstream of acrylonitrile

On the whole, it is estimated that the price of acrylonitrile market in November will still have room to explore, or hit the cost line. It is expected that the price of the mainstream market in eastern China will drop to 10500 yuan / ton and below the level.