Industrial Cluster: India Cotton Production And Consumption Committee (COCPC) Estimates That India Cotton Output Will Decline

In its second estimate, the Cotton Production and Consumption Commission of India (COCPC) lowered the cotton production forecast by 1.67% to 29.425 million bales (170 kg per bale), due to the decrease of unit yield and output in Gujarat, the largest cotton producing state.

In November last year, COCPC initially estimated that the current output in 2024/25 would be 29.926 million bales.

The COCPC held a meeting on Monday to finalize the latest estimated cotton production in 2024/25 (October to September of the next year).

According to the second estimate, the output of Gujarat will be reduced to 7.134 million bales, 15% less than the initial estimate of 8.41 million bales. This is mainly due to the decline in yield per hectare, which is expected to be 507 kg per hectare, compared with the previous estimate of 597 kg per hectare. The adverse climatic conditions in planting season affect the unit yield.

In Maharashtra, the second largest producer state, higher yield per unit area may increase the output to 8.909 million bales, 5% higher than the earlier estimated 8.41 million bales.

The yield per hectare in Maharashtra is expected to increase to 370.66 kg from the previous forecast of 352 kg per hectare. Favorable weather conditions are conducive to crop growth in Maharashtra and Trangana. Madhya Pradesh production is also expected to increase slightly to 1.535 million bales (1.412 million bales previously predicted).

In the central region composed of Gujarat, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, the output is expected to decline to 17.575 million bales (18.293 million bales).

In Telangana, the output has slightly increased to 4.986 million bales (4.895 million bales), while in Karnataka, the output may increase to 1.915 million bales (1.856 million bales).

It is estimated that the production in Andhra Pradesh will decrease slightly to 877000 bales (941000 bales) and that in Tamil Nadu will increase slightly to 130000 bales (109000 bales). In general, the output of the southern region is expected to increase slightly, to 7.908 million bales (7.801 million bales).

The output in the northern region is also expected to increase slightly, to 3.361 million bales (3.305 million bales), mainly due to the increase in Haryana production, to 1.244 million bales (1.023 million bales), and the increase in Punjab production, to 272000 bales (0.24 million bales). However, the output of Rajasthan is expected to decline to 1.845 million bales (2.042 million bales).

According to the balance sheet prepared by COCPC, the inventory may decrease to 3.035 million packages (4.71 million packages) by the end of September 2025.

COCPC estimates that the demand for cotton by non small and medium-sized enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises is not large. The overall demand was 33.6 million packages, lower than 35.448 million packages in the previous year. In last November's estimate, COCPC set the demand at 34.4 million packages.

The export volume is expected to decrease to 1.8 million bales (2.836 million bales last year), and the import volume will increase from 1.52 million bales to 2.5 million bales. Due to the sluggish demand and the pressure of global price trends on the domestic market, cotton prices may fall.